The 2016 presidential election will be a hard-fought contest that Democrats can win by rallying the base and fixing the economy, which could be a tall order for the party to fill.
In 2016, Democrats must hold on to the Obama coalition. The party will need the full backing of African Americans, Hispanics, labor groups, women, and youth voters to keep the White House for three election cycles, especially if the opponent is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who will likely run a centrist campaign on key issues like jobs, immigration, climate control, and the nation's crumbling infrastructure. This could steal valuable votes from the Democratic Party in a close election.
Second, Democrats will not be victorious if the economy has not rebounded. The unemployment rate must drop below 6.5 percent by mid-2014 for any Democrat to have a fighting chance. For instance, the party won't carry Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Nevada, or any other crucial swing state if the job market hasn't improved, no matter how hard liberals fight to get the vote out on election night, and may not defeat the G.O.P. for years to come.
So, Democrats got their work cut out for them to stay in power in 2016.
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