Democrats in 2016

The 2016 Presidential Election will be a hard-fought contest that Democrats can win by doing two things: rallying the base and fixing the economy.

Democrats must keep the Obama coalition together in 2016.  The party will need the full backing of African Americans,  Hispanics,  labor groups,  women, and youth voters to hold on to the White House for a historic third term,  especially if the opponent is former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida.  He will likely run a centrist race on hot issues like jobs,  immigration,  climate control, and the nation's crumbling infrastructure.  This could steal valuable votes from the Democratic Party in a close election.

Second,  Democrats will not be victorious if the economy has not rebounded.  The unemployment rate must drop below 6.5 percent by mid-2014 for any Democrat to have a fighting chance.  For instance,  the party won't carry Ohio,  Virginia,  Florida,  Nevada, or any other crucial swing state if there have not been gains in the job market,  no matter how hard liberals fight to get the vote out on election night and may not beat the G.O.P. again for years to come.

So, Democrats got their work cut out for them to stay in power in 2016.