President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have gained ground to become their party's presumptive nominee for the 2024 presidential election with no viable contender on the horizon. Trump's remaining opponent recently dropped out, virtually assuring he will be the Republican choice in the Fall with a sizable delegate lead. Biden also lacks a formidable challenger among Democrats as he has accumulated big wins in the primaries. The question is which candidate can convince the American people of four more years in office, similar to the Election of 1892, which featured an ex-president challenging a sitting commander-in-chief for reelection.
As for President Biden, the economy has grown at a rate not seen in fifty years; however, it is hammered by inflation, which could work against him. Record low unemployment, rising wages, and a booming stock market have strained the supply chain since the COVID-19 shutdown, which has robbed ordinary Americans of their spending power. Greed has also played a role as the marketplace is dominated by a handful of corporate giants who raise prices with impunity. Even though the cost of eggs has tumbled, meat, poultry, bread, and other staples continue to frustrate consumers. The price of gasoline has also trended upward, along with clothes, cars, and dining out. Moreover, renters are paying as much as thirty percent of their income on a place to live amid a national housing crisis as too few homes are being built and corporations buying up available property in many communities, with the administration deeply concerned.
Aside from the economy, the Biden Administration is confronted with concerns over Israel, Ukraine, and African Americans reportedly abandoning the party in droves, among other realities. Many Democrats believe Benjamin Netanyahu has gone too far in his pursuit of Hamas, causing the death of thousands of innocent Palestinians, including widespread destruction of property, with the administration not doing enough to halt the violence. Although the war in Ukraine rages on, it is believed it won't hurt the president's chances as much as losing the black vote. Support among African Americans has dropped by thirty percent in most polls over voting rights, the economy, and a general belief in the black community that the White House has not done enough to address their concerns, even though it was black men and women who voted him into office. The Biden Administration is working on ways to bridge the gap between black voters, like reaching out to them on black radio. If not, it could make it one of the most lopsided turnouts by people of color for Democrats since the 1950s.
There is one issue, however, that could work in the president's favor. The Supreme Court's recent decision to strike down Rowe V. Wade has galvanized women and progressives as the conservative-leaning court was viewed as caving to Right Wing pressure. Following the historic ruling, Democrats held on to the Senate with new members in the 2022 midterm elections and suffered minor losses in the House. The party also scored victories in key local races. Biden warned the high court in the 2024 State of the Union that women would come for them in the Fall.
Meanwhile, Trump is attempting to become the second president in U.S. history to serve two non-consecutive terms. Although he is leading in polls, nothing can be taken for granted.
Trump is haunted by a past that many Americans, including those of his own party, can't get past. Memories of COVID-19 are fresh in the minds of millions as the January 6th insurrection, which many viewed as a threat to Democracy. As a result, the former president scores poorly among independents, which could cause him crucial votes in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and other battleground states. Moreover, a large share of Americans, including Republicans, is fed up with Trump's antics or tendency to go off the rails and simply wants to move forward if it means backing Biden.
In addition to the tattered image, Trump's legal issues have many Americans wondering whether he could hold office if convicted or if they would like to see a felon serving in the White House. White Republicans with a four-year college degree or higher think not, while GOP voters with a high school diploma or less seem to not mind. They worry reelecting him could not only send the wrong message to young people but also hurt the nation's image abroad. They plan to write in another candidate or stay home on election day.
Despite his mounting negatives, Trump could capitalize on the crisis at the Southern border that has Americans worried. Immigrants from Central America and parts of Mexico have crowded American cities, putting a strain on services and causing tension with locals, notably African Americans. Southern Republican governors have strongly criticized the current president on this issue despite the former president encouraging the GOP to block a plan in Congress that might have curtailed the problem. If Trump can gain traction on immigration amid a stalemate on Capital Hill, it could flip votes in close states.
Other issues that might work in Trump's favor include Biden's age, which has created waves in the press, the housing crisis, and other concerns that may not be the fault of the current commander-in-chief.
In less than a year, we will see which man prevailed to lead the country for the next four years.
