President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have emerged as their party's nominees for the 2024 presidential election, with no contender on the horizon. Trump's remaining opponent recently dropped out, virtually assuring he will be the Republican choice in the Fall with a sizable delegate lead. Biden also lacks a formidable challenger among Democrats and has accumulated big wins in the primaries. The question is which candidate can convince the American people to support them for four more years in office, similar to the 1892 election, which featured an ex-president challenging a sitting commander-in-chief for reelection.
As for President Biden, the economy has grown at a rate not seen in fifty years despite being hampered by inflation, which could work against him. Record-low unemployment, rising wages, and a booming stock market have put a strain on the supply chain, which was weakened by the COVID-19 shutdown, and have eroded Americans' purchasing power. Greed has also played a role, as the marketplace is dominated by a handful of corporate giants who raise prices with impunity. Even though the cost of eggs has tumbled, the same can't be said for meat, poultry, and other staples. The price of gasoline has also trended upward, along with the prices of clothes, cars, and dining out. Moreover, renters are paying as much as thirty percent of their income on a place to live amid a national housing crisis. The construction of new homes has lagged far behind demand, and corporations are snapping up available property in many communities, which has the administration deeply concerned.
Aside from the economy, the Biden Administration is confronted with concerns over Israel, Ukraine, and African Americans reportedly abandoning the party in droves. A growing number of Democrats are convinced Benjamin Netanyahu has gone too far in his pursuit of Hamas, causing the death of thousands of innocent Palestinians, including widespread destruction of property. They fault the administration for not doing enough to halt the violence.
It is believed that Ukraine will not hurt the president's chances as much as possibly losing the black vote. Support among African Americans has dropped by thirty percent in most polls over voting rights, the economy, and a general belief that the White House has not done enough to address their concerns, even though they voted him into office. The Biden Administration is working on ways to bridge the gap among African American voters, like reaching out to black radio stations. If not, it could result in one of the most lopsided turnouts by people of color for Democrats since the 1950s.
However, there is a major issue that could work in the president's favor. The Supreme Court's recent decision to strike down Roe v. Wade has galvanized women and progressives, as the conservative-leaning court was viewed as caving to right-wing pressure. Following the historic ruling, Democrats maintained control of the Senate by adding seats in the 2022 midterm elections but suffered significant losses in the House. The party also scored victories in key local races. Biden warned the high court in the 2024 State of the Union that women would come for them in the Fall.
Meanwhile, Trump is attempting to become the second president in U.S. history to serve two non-consecutive terms. Although he is leading in polls, nothing can be taken for granted.
Trump is haunted by a past that Americans, including his own party, are having a hard time getting past. Memories of COVID-19 are fresh in the minds of millions, and the January 6th insurrection, which many viewed as a threat to Democracy. As a result, the former president scores poorly among independents, which could cost him crucial votes in the battleground states. Moreover, a large share of Americans, including Republicans, are fed up with Trump's antics or tendency to go off the rails and simply want to move forward if it means throwing their support behind Biden.
In addition to his weakened image, Trump's legal issues have Americans wondering whether he could hold office if convicted, or if they can stomach a felon serving in the White House. White Republicans with a four-year college degree or higher think not, while GOP voters with a high school diploma or less seem to not mind. They worry re-electing him could send the wrong message to young people and hurt the nation's image abroad. They plan to write in another candidate or stay home on election day.
Despite his mounting negatives, Trump could capitalize on the crisis at the Southern border that has Americans worried. Immigrants from Central America and parts of Mexico have crowded American cities, putting a strain on services and causing tension with locals, notably African Americans. Southern Republican governors have strongly criticized the current president on this issue despite the former president encouraging the GOP to block a plan in Congress that might have curtailed the problem. If Trump can gain traction on immigration amid a stalemate on Capitol Hill, it could flip votes in close states.
Other issues that might benefit Trump include Biden's age, which has created waves in the press, the housing crisis, and other concerns that may not be the fault of the current commander-in-chief.
In November, we will see which man will lead the country for the next four years.
